Jamaica Got To Where It Is By Ignoring Facts And Embracing This.….

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Despite the crippling crime situation in Jamaica which is affecting every strata of the tiny society, how many of you have ever seen a contribution in any of the Nation’s silly little newspapers with a column from a Police Officer on the subject? I haven’t but some of you may have, so I stand to be corrected.…..

One of the things you who care about what I have to say on the sub­ject of crime may have read or heard me say is that crime is not being tack­led by peo­ple who know what to do about it.
I may take a lot of flack for say­ing this but who cares. There are signs every­where that crime is some­thing which politi­cians pay lip-ser­vice to but there is demon­stra­ble no will or intent to once and for all get seri­ous about it.
The appoint­ment of Robert Montague as Minister of National Security may prob­a­bly be seen in that very light.
Now for the hyper par­ti­sans who are unable to see the for­est for the trees , it has pre­cious lit­tle to do with Robert Montague’s abil­i­ty to get things done, but every­thing to do with know­ing what needs to be done craft­ing the nec­es­sary pol­i­cy and get­ting the sup­port for leg­is­la­tion which will ensure that that pol­i­cy become law. Even then it requires much more for it’s exe­cu­tion by the secu­ri­ty forces.

Having a nuclear sci­en­tist per­form trau­ma surgery is a recipe for dis­as­ter. Though supreme­ly edu­cat­ed, a nuclear sci­en­tists is not a trau­ma surgeon.
It fol­lows there­fore that in order to have the most effec­tive per­for­mance the per­son doing the admin­is­ter­ing should and must have some train­ing in the area he is being tasked with offer­ing administration.
The National secu­ri­ty port­fo­lio has being an unwant­ed step-child with­in the Jamaican polit­i­cal space for a long time. There has been rum­blings of sorts that some of the men who served as min­is­ters of nation­al secu­ri­ty have actu­al­ly seen the assign­ment as a kind of pun­ish­ment of sorts.
These men were cer­tain­ly not fools, irre­spec­tive of their polit­i­cal par­ty they knew there was no real plan of action to elim­i­nate crime with­in the con­text of the Island’s gar­ri­son cul­ture. Simply put they were being asked to take on a job in which they were guar­an­teed to fail.

Who wants that kind of a fail­ure on their resume’ ?
It has to be with­in that con­text that the pre­vi­ous min­is­ter of nation­al secu­ri­ty Peter Bunting called for divine inter­ven­tion a call the present Minister Robert Montague seem to endorse.
Over the years this port­fo­lio has been occu­pied by peo­ple of all dif­fer­ent dis­ci­pline except Security . Which begs the ques­tion why? I have my own opin­ions which will come as no sur­prise to anyone.
Logically speak­ing, it appears there were direct plans afoot to destroy the JCF when they placed retired mil­i­tary to head the police depart­ment. That worked out quite well for ruin­ing the morale of the police. Despite the abun­dance of qual­i­ty peo­ple who came up through the ranks of the JCF and exem­pli­fied them­selves when­ev­er they par­tic­i­pate in train­ing with offi­cers from oth­er coun­tries , even when they are held in high esteem across the region they are nev­er giv­en the respon­si­bil­i­ty to devel­op pol­i­cy as min­is­ter with secu­ri­ty responsibility.
This can­not be con­sumed with­in the con­text of pol­i­tics or even coin­ci­dence. The stark real­i­ty is that they do not want the per­spec­tive of law enforce­ment in draft­ing laws.
The INDECOM Act is a clas­sic exam­ple of an Ill-con­ceived reac­tionary bit of leg­is­la­tion that lacks bal­ance and as such is cost­ing count­less lives.
Unfortunately for the shrink­ing minor­i­ty of inno­cents on the Island the polit­i­cal class is beside them­selves with glee at this idi­ot­ic Law . Police shoot­ings have gone down.
What they will nev­er talk about when they talk about their ideas of suc­cess of that law is that more peo­ple are get­ting mur­dered while they crow about INDECOM.
Why ?
They take you for total fools.

Which brings me to my point.
The deni­a­bil­i­ty, ratio­nal­iz­ing and non­sen­si­cal brain-dead argu­ments we have heard about crime in Jamaica.
Of all of the argu­ments I have heard regard­ing crime on the Island this bunch of gib­ber­ish from the JAMAICA OBSERVER has got to take the cake.
Much of what we have heard over the years has large­ly been a bunch of hog­wash by wannabe secu­ri­ty experts who posi­tion them­selves as author­i­ty on secu­ri­ty even though they know noth­ing of which they speak.
Nevertheless none is more grotesque than the fol­low­ing bunch of horse manure which total­ly throws out proven estab­lished stan­dards while ask­ing us to con­sid­er a new mode of mea­sure­ment which defies all log­ic yet embraces a mirage which enforces a false sense of security.
The very foun­da­tion of this guys argu­ments are flawed , it does not war­rant a point by point de-con­struct save and except to dis­prove this bit of nonsense.
Quote : When you look at cities’ vio­lent crime rates per 100,000 peo­ple, the five cities with the high­est totals (New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston and Philadelphia) dis­ap­pear from the top of the list. They have the high­est crime rates, yet, con­sid­er­ing their pop­u­la­tions, have a low­er num­ber of vio­lent crime occur­rences than the cities with the high­est vio­lent crime rates (just because of the flawed use of rat­ing crime rates per 100,000 people).
New York City the world’s largest city has over 8 mil­lion cit­i­zens, not to men­tion those who are undoc­u­ment­ed. The city’s homi­cide rate stands at around 300 annually>
Jamaica a tiny pin-prick of a coun­try of 2.8 mil­lion which can fit twice into Connecticut one of the tini­est states in the United States, in 2005 record­ed over 1600 homi­cides alone.
Why would we even con­sid­er any­thing this guy has to say. It’s total­ly okay to make mis­takes, it is nev­er too late to make a fresh start. But when the nar­ra­tive is framed on Orwellian log­ic as the fol­low­ing is, there will sure­ly be extreme con­se­quences for that stupidity.
Surely what we need are char­tered accoun­tants inform­ing us on how we should not wor­ry about the mur­der sta­tis­tics but set­tle into a sense of “it’s not so bad”.

FROM THE JAMAICA OBSERVER

I will not, in any way what­so­ev­er, dis­count Jamaica’s crime prob­lem. However, it appears to me that many Jamaicans are mis­led by the usu­al­ly flawed crime rate reports pre­pared and pub­lished annu­al­ly by var­i­ous for­eign organisations.

For starters, because a report expressed “mur­der rates” based on per 100,000 cit­i­zens in a coun­try it does not mean that is a fair and accu­rate way to inform the world about all crimes com­mit­ted in a par­tic­u­lar coun­try and here is why: In the first place, any­one who under­stands the val­ue of fair and accu­rate quan­ti­ta­tive analy­sis will agree with me that when using a vari­able (such as the size of a country’s pop­u­la­tion) to express crime rate, coun­tries with small­er pop­u­la­tion will more like­ly than not be at a dis­ad­van­tage. Therefore, Third World coun­tries will more like­ly than not make the top 10 most dan­ger­ous coun­tries (seri­ous crimes com­mit­ted) than, say, the US with over 320 mil­lion peo­ple, or China and India with over 1 bil­lion peo­ple, respec­tive­ly. In fact, based on a recent FBI report on vio­lent crimes for every city in the US, when you look at cities’ vio­lent crime rates per 100,000 peo­ple, the five cities with the high­est totals (New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston and Philadelphia) dis­ap­pear from the top of the list. They have the high­est crime rates, yet, con­sid­er­ing their pop­u­la­tions, have a low­er num­ber of vio­lent crime occur­rences than the cities with the high­est vio­lent crime rates (just because of the flawed use of rat­ing crime rates per 100,000 people).

In my opin­ion, the fairest way to express the over­all crime rate of any coun­try is to use a standard/​fixed mea­sure (such as time). For exam­ple, if crime rates were expressed as crimes com­mit­ted per hour in a par­tic­u­lar coun­try, I think that would be a much fair­er way to express crime rates. Let us test this the­o­ry below:

In 2014, America had a vio­lent crime rate of 365.5 per 100,000 res­i­dents (a total of 1,158,635 vio­lent crimes — based on a pop­u­la­tion of 317 mil­lion peo­ple), and a mur­der rate of 4.5 per 100,000 res­i­dents (Source: FBI Report on Violent Crimes for Every City in the US). If we focused only on the mur­der rate for America, there were 14,265 mur­ders com­mit­ted in 2014 in America (based on 317 mil­lion res­i­dents). Given that there is 8,760 hours in a year, that means 1.628 mur­ders were com­mit­ted every hour in America in 2014. In 2014, Jamaica’s mur­der rate was 36 per 100,000 res­i­dents, or 1,005 mur­ders (Source: JIS, as report­ed by the Commissioner of Police). Again, if we focused only on the mur­der rate for Jamaica, and giv­en that there is 8,760 hours in a year, it means that 0.11473 (less than one) mur­der was com­mit­ted every hour in Jamaica in 2014. Therefore, based on a fair mea­sure (time), more mur­ders are com­mit­ted per hour in the US than Jamaica. I will fur­ther posit that if this fair mea­sure (time) was used to cal­cu­lat­ed the mur­der rates of the oth­er nine so-called most vio­lent coun­tries (Honduras, Venezuela, Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Swaziland, St Kitts and Nevis, South Africa & Colombia), the US would like­ly be the most vio­lent coun­try in the world (based on the most mur­ders com­mit­ted per hour). Trevor H Francis is a char­tered accoun­tant (JA) and cer­ti­fied pub­lic accoun­tant (US).
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