Poverty Will Worsen,’ But Not Because Of A Single Point Increase In Interest Rates…

One of JAMAICA’s dai­ly pub­li­ca­tions today blared out the head­line; “Poverty Will Worsen.” The arti­cle then laid out the data that sup­ports its asser­tion; the cen­tral bank raised inter­est rates by a full per­cent­age point from 0.5 per­cent to 1.5 percent.
The busi­ness com­mu­ni­ty argues the rate increase will make it dif­fi­cult for busi­ness peo­ple to secure and man­age loan pay­ments in an already dif­fi­cult eco­nom­ic climate.
The Bank of Jamaica, on the oth­er hand, insists its deci­sion is “aimed at ensur­ing that the annu­al increase in the prices of con­sumer goods and ser­vices remains with­in the bank’s infla­tion tar­get of 4.0 per­cent to 6.0 percent”.
As is cus­tom­ary, you may well imag­ine that the truth lies some­where in the middle.

One does not need to be an econ­o­mist to under­stand that the nation’s econ­o­my is not sup­port­ed by any real and tan­gi­ble per­for­mance in man­u­fac­tur­ing, baux­ite, agri­cul­ture, or any oth­er export-based per­for­mance index.
Jamaica’seconomy is anchored to tourism; as we all know, tourism is sub­ject to all kinds of expo­sures that dic­tate whether peo­ple trav­el or not. Even at its best, no sin­gle sec­tor is near­ly enough to sup­port an econ­o­my with near­ly three mil­lion dependents.
And so remit­tance becomes the sec­ond high­est for­eign exchange source of rev­enue stream­ing into the Island, — again a very fick­le rev­enue stream sub­ject to eco­nom­ic and oth­er con­di­tions in the source countries.

This is where for­eign lenders come in. So the econ­o­my stum­bles along year over year, large­ly exist­ing on bor­rowed mon­ey, being sub­ject­ed to the dic­tates of lender agen­cies whose inter­ests lie in keep­ing the coun­try for­ev­er a debtor state depen­dent on them for sur­vival. This means that each year a larg­er share of the Island’s gross domes­tic prod­uct goes to debt ser­vic­ing or inter­est pay­ments, depend­ing on your preference.
Therefore, our Jamaican econ­o­my is oper­at­ing like a shop­keep­er who opens a lit­tle gro­cery shop in an area where no one lives, gets up every day, and leans on the counter expect­ing busi­ness to come through the door.

The num­ber one issue affect­ing Jamaica is “crime.” It has been this way since the ’70s. It will con­tin­ue to be this way until a crop of lead­ers emerge who under­stand that when they sup­port lax laws that enhance crim­i­nal­i­ty rather than elim­i­nate it, they are them­selves sub­ject to the neg­a­tive con­se­quences of crime.
Poverty will wors­en,’ but not because of a sin­gle point increase in inter­est rates by the cen­tral bank; it will increase because the lead­ers of the nation are try­ing to stand up a nation of sup­posed pros­per­i­ty that is not sus­tained and cement­ed on the strong pil­lars of the rule of law.
Because the econ­o­my encour­ages prof­i­teer­ing and graft, it dis­cour­ages inno­va­tion, for­eign invest­ment, and the return of Jamaican res­i­dents liv­ing in the diaspora.

The mon­ey spent on law enforce­ment is cal­cu­la­ble; the mon­ey lost to the nation because of the vio­lent crime rate is incal­cu­la­ble. Added togeth­er, the nation con­tin­ues to bleed resources that could have been bet­ter spent in improv­ing the lives of the Jamaican people.
Instead of strong lead­er­ship, Jamaica floun­ders along like a ship with­out a rud­der, sub­ject to the direc­tions of the wind.
The pover­ty that con­tin­ues to stran­gle Jamaicans has lit­tle to do with the sin­gle point rate increase and every­thing to do with the peo­ple and their lead­ers’ love affair with cor­rup­tion and vio­lent crime.

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Mike Beckles is a for­mer Police Detective, busi­ness­man, free­lance writer, black achiev­er hon­oree, and cre­ator of the blog mike​beck​les​.com.