T&T Pollster Finds Momentum Leaning To JLP

THE February 25 General Election will come down to 14 mar­gin­al seats, which a new poll con­duct­ed by Trinidad- based polit­i­cal sci­en­tist Derek Ramsamooj shows is lean­ing towards the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).

According to Ramsamooj, the pri­vate­ly com­mis­sioned poll con­duct­ed between nom­i­na­tion day (February 9) and the past week­end, before the JLP-and the gov­ern­ing People’s National Party (PNP)-hosted major ral­lies in Half-Way-Tree and Montego Bay, respec­tive­ly, found that 51.76 per cent of elec­tors in these mar­gin­al seats would vote for the JLP and 48.24 per cent for the PNP.

“The polit­i­cal momen­tum at this point is lean­ing favourably towards the JLP form­ing the next Government. However, the win­ning of an elec­tion is based on the resources — finan­cial and human — and the [effec­tive­ness] of the elec­tion machin­ery [on elec­tion day],” said Ramsamooj.

He warned, how­ev­er, that any “unfore­seen error” by either of the polit­i­cal par­ties in the next 48 hours will be a polit­i­cal dis­as­ter. Ramsamooj said he and his team inter­viewed 1,859 peo­ple for the poll, which has a mar­gin of error of plus or minus four per cent.
“It has a 95 per cent con­fi­dence lev­el,” Ramsamooj told the Jamaica Observer yesterday.

He said that when Jamaicans were asked who would make a bet­ter prime min­is­ter, 53.47 per cent said JLP Leader Andrew Holness and 46.53 per cent Portia Simpson Miller, the pres­i­dent of the PNP and cur­rent prime minister.

At the same time, when asked if Prime Minister Simpson Miller deserves anoth­er term, 52.02 per cent said ‘no’ and 41.41 per cent said ‘yes’.

Some 6.51 per cent, he said, respond­ed that they did not know. Asked what fac­tors would influ­ence them to vote, 74.44 per cent of respon­dents said lead­er­ship; 71.37 per cent the com­pe­tence of can­di­dates; 69.74 per cent nation­al issues; and 61.30 per cent loy­al­ty to party.

The con­stituen­cies (mar­gin­al seats) in which the poll was con­duct­ed were:

• St James Central;

• St James West Central;

• St Mary Western;

• St Mary South Eastern;

• St Andrew East Rural;

• St Andrew West Rural;

• Hanover Eastern;

• St Andrew Eastern;

• St Thomas Eastern;

• St Ann North Western;

• St Catherine East Central;

• St Elizabeth South Eastern; and

• St Elizabeth South West.

“No polling was done in the hard­core PNP and JLP con­stituen­cies,” Ramsamooj said, mak­ing it clear that it was not a nation­al poll.

According to Ramsamooj, when asked what they expect­ed in ²⁰¹⁶⁄₁₇ if the PNP remained in office, 66.91 per cent of respon­dents in the mar­gin­al seats said ris­ing unem­ploy­ment; 77.70 per cent ris­ing tax­es; and 69.32 per cent an increase in crime.

At the same time, when asked what are the most urgent issues that need to be tack­led now, 85.65 per cent said unem­ploy­ment was the most impor­tant; 77.23 per cent iden­ti­fied pover­ty as the sec­ond most impor­tant; 71.79 per cent said prob­lems fac­ing the youth; 75.89 per cent edu­ca­tion issues; and 73.58 per cent said cost of living.

At the same time, Ramsamooj said when respon­dents were asked what was the most urgent polit­i­cal prob­lem that need­ed to be addressed in Jamaica, 72.28 per cent said con­sti­tu­tion­al reform; 70.24 per cent bet­ter gov­er­nance and deal­ing with pub­lic financ­ing; 69.86 per cent dis­hon­esty in pol­i­tics; and 68.29 per cent cor­rup­tion in the polit­i­cal system.

According to the Ramsamooj poll, 62.03 per cent of respon­dents said ‘yes’ when asked: “Do you think the Government was able to pass the IMF tests at the expense of the cit­i­zens of Jamaica?”

Another 21.14 per cent said ‘no,’ and 12.84 per cent said they did not know. Respondents were also asked if they agreed or dis­agreed with the slo­gans of the par­ties — the PNP’s ‘Step up the Progress’ and the JLP’s ‘From Poverty to Prosperity’.

Some 53.47 per cent agreed with the PNP’s slo­gan, against 46.53 per cent who dis­agreed. On the oth­er hand, 62.27 per cent were in agree­ment with the JLP’s slo­gan, and 37.73 per cent in disagreement.

The JLP, mean­while, had 80.70 per cent of respon­dents endors­ing its growth agen­da as part of its job cre­ation plan; 77.71 per cent endorsed its planned cre­ation of a Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation; and 75.64 per cent backed its National Apprenticeship Programme.

“Both the PNP and the JLP have been able to moti­vate and mobilise core sup­port­ers, and both have demon­strat­ed that they have been able to bring out their sup­port base as a method of test­ing and review­ing their elec­tion day machin­ery,” Ramsamooj told the Observer yesterday.

However, he said that what is crit­i­cal is the polit­i­cal appeal of both plat­forms in attract­ing the unde­cid­ed vot­ers. He said it was evi­dent that the elec­torate is look­ing for lead­er­ship that will meet the IMF con­di­tion­al­i­ties, while improv­ing their lives.

“The polit­i­cal rhetoric and polit­i­cal optics dis­played, while res­onat­ing with par­ty sup­port­ers, have a dif­fer­ent inter­pre­ta­tion with the unde­cid­ed, first-time vot­ers, the busi­ness com­mu­ni­ty, and swing vot­ers,” he said.

Voters, he added, would also be con­cerned about the ben­e­fits under a new Administration over the next five years.

Political inter­est, he said, has been height­ened since the par­ties launched their man­i­festos last week, but not­ed that the pub­lic con­ver­sa­tion is more about the JLP’s 10-point plan.

The PNP, he said, has been respond­ing through a sin­gle voice (Dr Peter Phillips), which has raised the ques­tion of who will be the next leader of the party.

“Maybe there is a not-so-vis­i­ble polit­i­cal hand at work that may see Dr Phillips emerg­ing as the leader of the PNP in the next five years” he observed.

He said that in the few days lead­ing up to Thursday’s elec­tion, it will be hand-tohand com­bat in the mar­gin­al con­stituen­cies, while point­ing out that the var­i­ous incen­tives being offered to moti­vate cer­tain vot­ers — the strength of var­i­ous can­di­dates and strate­gies on elec­tion day to get out the vot­ers — will be crucial.

“One would expect a strate­gic allo­ca­tion of cam­paign resources in the mar­gin­al con­stituen­cies,” he said.

Ramsamooj, who com­mend­ed the Jamaican elec­torate for their lev­el of matu­ri­ty, said the choic­es made by cit­i­zens will be crit­i­cal to choic­es of lead­er­ship and poli­cies that should guide Jamaica through the tur­bu­lent glob­al waters.

He said, too, that polit­i­cal trust and com­pet­i­tive­ness and con­nec­tiv­i­ty to the elec­torate at the con­stituen­cy lev­el will also influ­ence voters.

Ramsamooj has, over the years, done polit­i­cal polling in Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, Suriname, Belize, Guyana, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Anguila, and St Kitts and Nevis. Read more here : T&T poll­ster finds momen­tum lean­ing to JLP